(Bloomberg) — U.S. equity futures rose Monday amid a dip in crude oil as traders weighed inflation risks from commodity-supply disruptions triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts gained along with Australian shares. Investors were parsing efforts at diplomacy to tackle the conflict, as well as comments from a U.S. official that Russia asked China for military equipment.
Last week’s plunge in U.S.-listed Chinese shares threatens to sap the mood in Hong Kong. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index sank 10% on Friday to the lowest level since September 2015.
A dollar gauge and the yen slipped, while the euro edged up. The Russian ruble was indicated slightly stronger versus the greenback. Gold retreated further from $2,000 an ounce.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to begin a cycle of interest-rate increases with a 25 basis-points move, seeking to tame price pressures. Inflation was already high before the war in Ukraine, and the isolation of resource-rich Russia in retribution, further stoked commodity costs.
The flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve, and a 12% drop in global stocks this year, signal worries that receding stimulus and elevated energy, grain and metal costs may choke the world economic recovery. Markets are also waiting to see if Russia defaults on its international debt after losing access to almost half of its foreign exchange reserves.
“We are experiencing extraordinary volatility in global equities compounded by wavering market sentiment and the risk of recession intensifies on spiraling commodity prices,” Louise Dudley, portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes, wrote in a note. “We expect ongoing swings in the short term as geopolitical uncertainty over Russian crude persists.”
The Fed is the drawcard among eight Group of 20 members whose monetary officials are due this week to assess economic prospects.
The Fed “are really stuck between the real economy and the financial economy,” Karen Harris, Bain & Co. global head of macro research, said on Bloomberg Television. “You have mainstream struggling with inflation — that’s why we are set to see these rises coming in March. On the other side we are trying not to prick the financial economy. Either path is deflationary, recessionary.”
Meanwhile, senior U.S. and China officials are set to meet Monday to discuss Ukraine. Russian missiles hit a military training facility in western Ukraine close to Poland, raising new concerns about the conflict potentially spilling over Ukraine’s borders.
China and Hong Kong are also contending with rising Covid cases. Authorities have put the southern city of Shenzhen into a lockdown. The outbreak and disappointing bank lending data have stirred expectations of more policy easing to support China’s economy.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin fell and was trading below $38,000.
Here are some key events to watch this week:
China one-year medium-term lending facility rate, economic activity data, Tuesday
EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
FOMC rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell news conference, Wednesday
Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
ECB President Christine Lagarde, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco and Chief Economist Philip Lane speak at a conference, Thursday
Bank of Japan rate decision, Friday
For more markets news, follow our Markets Live blog.
Some of the main moves in markets:
S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% as of 8:44 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% Friday
Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1% Friday
Nikkei 225 futures fell 0.9%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1.1%
The Japanese yen traded at 117.51 per dollar
The offshore yuan was at 6.3581 per dollar
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro was at $1.0934, up 0.2%
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $106.77 a barrel
Gold fell 0.7% to $1,974.73 an ounce
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