Bitcoin Stabilizes Ahead of Biden’s Executive Order on Crypto

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Bitcoin (BTC) has held above its $37,000 support level over the past 24 hours, albeit within a tight trading range and with low volume.

Still, later this week, an executive order by U.S. President Biden that will outline the government’s strategy for cryptocurrencies could be a source of volatility for bitcoin.

“The executive order has been known about before the war in Ukraine and was originally intended to mainly address stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDC),” Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at U.K.-based digital asset broker GlobalBlock, wrote in an email to CoinDesk. “However, due to the increased concerns of Russia using crypto to evade sanctions, many are worried that the order will impose strict regulatory changes that will hinder the crypto industry.”

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that European officials are planning a joint bond sale to finance energy and defense spending. For now, talks are informal, but analysts expect a the spending could reduce investor concerns about an economic slowdown stemming from inflation and geopolitical woes. News of the potential bond sale contributed to an uptick in the euro versus the U.S. dollar during the London trading day.

On a positive note, regulatory filings show that large institutions such as ARK Investment Management and Morgan Stanley have been buying shares in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which is trading at a record 30% discount.

Demand from investors, plus million dollar buybacks from Digital Currency Group, which is the parent company of both Grayscale and CoinDesk, could mean that stakeholders are still hoping that the trust will receive regulatory approval to convert the close-ended fund into a spot-based exchange-traded fund. Read more from CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole here.

Latest prices

Bitcoin (BTC): $38,524, +2.36%

Ether (ETH): $2,554, +3.34%

S&P 500 daily close: $4,170, −0.73%

Gold: $2,060 per troy ounce, +3.30%

Ten-year Treasury yield daily close: 1.87%

Bitcoin, ether and gold prices are taken at approximately 4pm New York time. Bitcoin is the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX); Ether is the CoinDesk Ether Price Index (ETX); Gold is the COMEX spot price. Information about CoinDesk Indices can be found at coindesk.com/indices.

Key support levels

Bitcoin is 43% off its all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November and is down about 8% over the past month. Typically, extreme price declines encourage buyers to return in hopes of catching a bargain ahead of the next market rally.

Support levels can help traders identify price levels where a downtrend can be expected to pause because of a concentration of demand or buying interest. Once a support level is held and a break above resistance is confirmed, upside momentum tends to accelerate, setting the stage for an upcycle.

The chart below estimates the average cost basis (realized prices) among bitcoin investors, which aligns with key technical support levels.

Most short-term bitcoin holders are at a loss, having a cost basis of around $46,400, according to data compiled by Glassnode. Long-term holders, however, have an estimated break-even point of about $39,200, which, if broken, could yield further downside toward $24,000.

Sell-offs are typically driven by short-term holders, whereas long-term holders are likely to accumulate along major support levels, similar to what occurred during the 2019 and 2020 price bottoms. So far, it appears that BTC is roughly halfway through a bear market phase.

Estimates of bitcoin investors' cost basis levels (Glassnode)

Estimates of bitcoin investors’ cost basis levels (Glassnode)

Altcoin roundup

  • Avalanche commits $290M in AVAX to attract gaming, DeFi and NFT ‘subnets”: The Avalanche Foundation announced Tuesday a major push to woo top projects with a cache of four million AVAX tokens (worth $290 million at today’s prices). Specifically, the effort looks to foster smart contract blockchain Avalanche’s “subnet” functionality, where application-specific blockchains – be they for Web 3 gaming or decentralized finance (DeFi) – can be spun up at scale, according to CoinDesk’s Zack Seward and Eli Tan. Read more here.

  • Papa John’s NFT drop: Pizza takeout chain Papa John’s (PZZA) is planning to give away nearly 20,000 non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to customers in the U.K., shrugging off a previous warning from the country’s advertising regulator about its dalliances in the crypto world. The collection of 19,840 NFTs has been minted on the Tezos blockchain and takes the form of nine different pizza delivery hot bag designs. The NFTs will be dropped on several dates in early March, according to CoinDesk’s Jamie Crawley. Read more here.

  • Minorities are using the NFTs to promote their culture: Last July, Amar Bedi, a turbaned Sikh, an identity associated with Sikhism, the fifth-largest faith in the world, visualized an NFT platform that would capture the various identities of his people. The platform that would provide representation to an under-represented community in the metaverse would be called MetaSikhs. More of these stories are covered by Amitoj Singh here.

Relevant news

Other markets

Digital assets in the CoinDesk 20 ended the day higher.

Largest Winners:

Largest losers:

There are no losers in CoinDesk 20 today.

Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges.



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