Offering an Attractive Additional Entry Point, Says Analyst


Better late than never, right? Finally, and after several delays, on Tuesday, Novavax (NVAX) announced it had submitted to the FDA its request for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Covid-19 vaccine NVX-CoV2373.

The setbacks the company had encountered on the path toward the filing mostly revolved around manufacturing issues. As such, B. Riley analyst Mayank Mamtani thinks a “key component” in driving approvals will be “confidence from government agencies in the company’s global manufacturing infrastructure to deliver on the ensuing demand.”

Until now, Novavax’s strategic partner, the Serum Institute of India (SII), has been responsible for the supply of doses. At the last count, which includes the Indian government’s latest export permit of 250 million doses beginning this month, the total tally of doses allocated to be shipped from India has reached over 350 million. The bulk of which has gone toward meeting the commitment to supply the COVAX facility with 1.1 billion doses of the vaccine. It currently remains unclear what the dose allocation plan is for upper-income countries.

However, Mamtani notes that SII’s manufacturing capacity, along with SK Biosciences’ “almost comparable” progress on scale-up manufacturing, indicates Novavax is “gaining substantial supply to meet APA commitments to upper income countries, via CDMO arrangements with these two strategic partners.” All this while the company ploughs ahead with CMC data generation activities in 10+ North America and EU facilities.

Mamtani also thinks that due to the recent significant “COVID disease burden” coupled with the “unequivocal real-world evidence of diminished antibody-mediated vaccine efficacy,” the widely held view that omicron has reduced the level of urgency is misplaced. Accordingly, with “imminent” U.K. MHRA approval, followed by the possible US EUA, Novavax is well-positioned to provide the “only alternative to mRNA vaccines in order to ensure sufficient immunization level exists in the population prior to the emergence of next COVID variant & ensuing wave of cases.”

As such, Mamtani implores investors take advantage of an “attractive additional entry point,” to scoop up NVAX shares on the cheap. The analyst’s Buy rating is backed by a $315 price target, suggesting shares will rise by 231% in the year ahead. (To watch Mamtani’s track record, click here)

Overall, this vaccine maker gets a Strong Buy rating from the consensus of Wall Street’s analysts; the 5 recent reviews on the stock include 4 Buys and 1 Hold. Novavax shares are selling for $89.33, and the average price target of $243.60 suggests room for ~172% growth in the year ahead. (See Novavax stock forecast on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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